Historical Growth Rates analysis

Phil Town is an expert investing guru using the Payback Time method of investing and value investing. Phil Town does not agree with the CNN financial. Cnn's thinks that the biggest thrift yields more than a Treasury bond
Here’s why Phil Town disagrees and don’t like it: Phil Town looks and analyzes the Historical Growth Rate of 13% a year, Many Analysts estimated Growth Rate of 10%. With a historical PE of 11, of course you'll notice the sticker Price is $26 with a MOS Price of $13. It’s selling for $32 as of today. CNN Financial guys likes the 4% dividend. Who wouldn’t. But as that’s not the whole story on this issue. If the stock price goes down to its real value as a business, you lose half your money. That makes the 4% dividend look kind of anemic. So let's combine the two and see what we get. If we buy WM at $42 for the dividend and if the dividend continues to grow at 12% a year and and then we sell it in ten years, including the reinvesting the dividend at 12% a year, we still only end up with a 14% compounded return. That is just a tad below our minimum and assumes everything works they way the analysts expect. So, no Margin of Safety here even with a fat dividend check. Interesting how the price we pay makes such a huge difference in our return. So more of this little snapshot investing recommendations coming in the next few days.